Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.
Jose effects on the Outer Banks
Hurricane Jose is currently located a little more than 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. With his movement straight north, Jose will pass off shore of the Outer Banks. Current sustained winds are 90 miles per hour with Tropical Storm Force winds extending just over 200 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force gusts may occur in some of the heavier showers over the Outer Banks, but sustained conditions are not expected in area, so there are no Watches at this time. Some tropical showers and thunderstorms are already being seen on the Morehead City Nexrad radar. These showers will continue to develop as Jose moves closer. Here is the current Satellite view.
Tropical Storm conditions further North
The best chances for sustained Tropical Storm conditions begins in Delaware and goes up the coast into Massachusetts. The Mid-Atlantic coast could avoid sustained conditions, but widespread tropical storm conditions should be expected as the wind field expands. Even as Jose weakens, the tropical storm force winds will continue to expand as the transition to an extra tropical system takes place as seen in this forecast below. This model does keep the sustained winds off the coast, but the watches are in effect due to the risk of those winds moving slightly further west. It will not take much westward movement to bring these sustained winds onshore in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.
As seen above, the tropical storm force winds are expected to move well ashore in New England and over Long Island. The closest pass to the Island of Nantucket, seen below, will occur Wednesday afternoon.
This image shows sustained tropical storm force winds nearly reaching Boston. I would expect that Watches will be extended further up the East coast of Massachusetts in further advisories. Tropical Storm force wind gusts could be seen up into Central New England in the heavier showers and thunderstorms of the outer bands. While the majority of the rain will fall closer to the center of the system, the precipitation shield associated with Jose will be expanding by the time it reaches New England.
We should not just pay attention to the forecast for the center of Jose during this time. The location of the center only matters in terms of positioning for the overall storm. The key factor from Delaware north will be the rate of expansion of the wind field and precipitation shield as the system starts its transition from tropical to non-tropical. Even if Jose is still a Tropical Storm by the time he passes southeast of New England, the transition will have been happening in at least some capacity.
Robert Millette
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